Energy Market Report
Mar 11, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
March 10th – The balance of the month power prices started the week lower. This was due to the weekend weather models maintaining a warm outlook. However, term markets experienced an increase because of the rise in natural gas prices. The weak liquidations and ample renewable generation in the near term helped bring March power prices down today. On the other hand, the gains in natural gas prices caused the balance of the year power prices to rise by more than a dollar.
March 7th – Despite the warmer overnight model runs, I observed that natural gas prices rallied throughout the afternoon, recovering earlier losses and ending in the green. With natural gas bouncing back with a 9.7 cent gain today, term power prices also showed some strength.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 79.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 20.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 82.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 18.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 64.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 35.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 73.8% indicates that the current price is lower than 26.2% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 82.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 17.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 84% indicates that the current price is lower than 16% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 1,760 Bcf as of Friday, February 28, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 80 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 585 Bcf less than last year at this time and 224 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,984 Bcf. At 1,760 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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