Energy Market Report
Nov 11, 2024Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
November 11, 2024 – The markets kicked off the week with a bang, surging higher as cooler weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks rolled in. Strong liquidations on Sunday and a 10% jump in natural gas futures pushed up power prices for the rest of the year and into 2025.
November 8, 2024 – It was a quiet day on the trading floor with markets moving sideways as traders looked ahead to the weekend. The natural gas market’s ups and downs, along with unpredictable weather forecasts, kept everyone on their toes. Plus, a 1300 MW nuclear unit coming back online over the weekend could add some downward pressure on near-term power prices.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/JMP Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 68.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 31.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 67.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 32.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 67.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 32.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 67.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 32.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 74.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 25.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 76.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 23.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 3,932 Bcf as of Friday, November 1, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 69 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 157 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 215 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,717 Bcf. At 3,932 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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