Energy Market Report
Feb 4, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
February 3rd – So, here’s the deal: weather models are pointing to a cold snap at the tail end of the 11-15 day forecast. And guess what? That sent power and gas prices climbing as we kicked off the week. On-peak power prices? They were on a steady upward march today, with March natural gas futures jumping a solid 10% on the back of those chilly weather expectations.
January 31st – Fast forward to the end of January, and the midday weather models were still showing above-normal temperatures. That trend pushed February power prices down. The rest of the power curve and natural gas? Pretty much stayed put as we wrapped up the week. Power prices kept sliding today, thanks to those warmer-than-usual temperatures sticking around for the next week.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 83.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 16.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 82.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 17.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 71.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 28.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 77.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 22.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 86.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 87.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 12.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,571 Bcf as of Friday, January 24, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 321 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 144 Bcf less than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,682 Bcf. At 2,571 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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