Energy Market Report
Dec 16, 2024Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
December 16 – The forecast for next week is showing a return to those above-normal temperatures, and that’s putting some pressure on power and gas markets. Term power prices dipped a bit to kick off the week. The weather models are still pointing to warmer-than-usual temperatures in Texas, which is pushing January power prices down.
December 13 – Wrapping up the week, markets took a step back. The latest weather models are now leaning towards an above-normal temperature outlook for the end of the 11-15 day period. January power prices dropped today, with the possibility of those warmer temperatures making a comeback towards the end of December.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 77.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 22.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 79.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 21.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 71.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 28.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 74.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 25.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 84.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 15.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 84.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 15.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 3,747 Bcf as of Friday, December 6, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 190 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 67 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 165 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,582 Bcf. At 3,747 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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