Energy Market Report
Jan 27, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
January 27th, 2025 – A stark contrast to Friday, power and gas prices took a nosedive to kick off the week. The latest weather model runs shed about 20 HDDs from Friday’s forecast. The midday update showed milder temperatures for the 11–15-day outlook, leading to a significant drop in next week’s power prices, down $17/mwh.
January 24th, 2025 – As we hit midday, the latest model runs turned colder towards the end of the 11–15-day period. This shift nudged the front of the curve higher, wrapping up the week on a stronger note. February at-the-curve power prices saw a $2/mwh bump today, driven by the potential return of a cold weather pattern in Texas.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 85.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 85.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 77.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 22.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 82.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 18.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 90.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 9.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 91.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 8.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,892 Bcf as of Friday, January 17, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 223 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 57 Bcf less than last year at this time and 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf. At 2,892 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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