Energy Market Report
Nov 5, 2024Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
November 4th – It was a rollercoaster ride for December gas, starting the day at a low of $2.520 before climbing steadily to close up $0.116. Meanwhile, power prices for the rest of the month dipped on bearish fundamentals, but the rest of the curve followed gas upwards. The natural gas market is heating up, and with cooler temperatures on the horizon in the 11-15 day forecast, power prices got a nice little bump today.
November 1st – As we headed into the weekend, a sharp drop in spot gas prices dragged near-term power prices down. Adding to the pressure, a slew of thermal outages are wrapping up their scheduled maintenance over the next couple of weeks, which isn’t doing any favors for power prices either
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/JMP Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 69.3% indicates that the current price is lower than 30.7% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 67.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 32.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 68.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 31.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 67.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 32.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 78.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 21.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 79.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 20.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 3,863 Bcf as of Friday, October 25, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 107 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 178 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,685 Bcf. At 3,863 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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